Oscar Predictions!

>>> and in the big finish tonight, the oscars are sunday night, and everyone in the office is making their predictions, right? your office is like ours? okay. i'm going to give you mine in just a moment. the oddsmakers are going with " argo ." an 85% chance of winning. it also is the pick of nate silver of 538.com. " argo " portrayed the rescue of six americans during the iran hostage crisis back in 1979 . " zero dark thirty " depicted the ten-year hunt for osama bin laden . the movie actually sparked a senate investigation. one of my favorites, " lincoln ," of course, possibly one of the best political movies i think ever made. then there was "silver linings playbook," a truly funny, unusual, and moving film about a man with bipolar disorder. of course, every year there are movies and actors who are sadly overlooked. ladies and gentlemen , i give you the campaign. my country 'tis of thee sweet land of liberty

>> after cam brady's baby-punching incident, marty huggins has jumped 11 points in the polls. joining me tonight is david edelstein , chief film critic of the "new york" magazine and contributor for cbs sunday morning. do i have a shot at this? i probably shouldn't hold my breath.

>> i think it's a terrific performance. and i definitely think that you really nailed the sort of gravity of the moment and the lightheartedness. i'm just talking out my butt here. i have no idea.

>> believe me, i can do it for 20 minutes as well. david, great to have you with us tonight.

>> i am very happy to be talking about an oscar that didn't kill somebody either tonight.

>> what do you think?

>> tonight.

>> best picture ?

>> best picture , everybody is saying " argo ." and they're saying " argo " because ben affleck , right, didn't get nominated for best director . so his loss is the movie's win. it's kind of funny anylike that in hollywood. it's not so much artistic merit , it's who can we award. who needs the bucking up.

>> of all the pictures i saw this year, when i came out of " lincoln ," a week later i went back and saw it again, i was so impressed with it. both times i left the theater thinking how can that not win? i just had that feeling. does " lincoln " have a great shot at getting best picture ?

>> i thought so. but maybe it just wears its gravitas too loudly, you know. maybe just people, you know, came out of it awed, and now they just think back and go i don't really want to see that again. i don't want to think than movie. i don't know. i don't know. i loved it too. i loved it a lot more than i loved " argo ."

>> best actress , i like jennifer lawrence . i thought she was terrific in "silver linings playbook."

>> well, i think she is definitely going to win. jessica chastain i thought had a great shot. but " zero dark thirty " got caught up in all the torture stuff, and we know that despite what that movie says, torture does not work. and if you can point to anything to prove that, it's that " zero dark thirty " will not win an oscar.

>> is this a tough year to pick tough actor?

>> no. hugh jackman 's got it in a lock, absolutely. ha ha , just kidding. of course it's daniel day lewis , of course.

>> really?

>> i can't even remember who else is in the category, i'm afraid, i know.

>> bradley cooper ! bradley cooper .

>> he's great.

>> when i was watching him, it was this is just this guy being this guy. it was like there was no script at all.

>> i don't know if he would like to hear you say that since he is playing a lunatic. every time this time of year, i get really sad. all these people do these great things. we have to view everything these days through a prism of a competition. some of my favorite performances telephone year didn't get nominated. but what the hell, let's talk about the guys who did.

>> best supporting actor ?

>> well, everybody says de niro . and you know why? because de niro was out there campaigning. he was pressing the flesh. whereas tommy lee jones who i thought had the best chance is kind of widely regarded as a sour puss.

>> does that matter?

>> of course it matters. you're not going to talk to me about art, are you? we're talking about politics. it's all about politics, i'm afraid, i'm afraid.

>> so it's really not who the best is. it's really maybe who they like and de niro knows that?

>> i don't want to minimize the fact that these people have great tastes by and large, and they pick very worthy people. but no, in the end, what makes the difference is how much money you pay on the campaign. yes, they have political -- they have awards consultants. they have their own james carvilles. they have their own war rooms, you know. they really do it out there. they spend the money to get to lobby these voters, these few thousand white over 55 male predominantly liberal voters and get them into this camp.

>> what performance this year was a real letdown? what were you expecting to be really good and it didn't do very well?

>> you know what? i don't want to bad-mouth people.

>> yeah, yeah.

>> i just want the say -- i want to say that i'm disappointed that matthew mcconaughey , who gave such an electrifying crazy performance in " magic mike " wasn't recognized. here is a guy who gets such a bad rap . people think he is a space cadet . he is so wonderful. he is such a wonderful actor. rachel wise in a movie nobody saw called "the deep blue sea ." all these people, my heart kind of breaks for them. poor actors, they're always getting rejected.

>> now, for best director , you like ben affleck , right?

>> he is not going to win because he is not nominated. he can't win. impossible. unless he is a write-in. him and kathryn bigelow for the torture thing. definitely he deserved a nomination. it's not my favorite movie.

>> david --

>> a wonderful, wonderful director. a tad crazy. and well known for being a bit of a jerk himself. and maybe he has a ways to go. he is one of my favorite directors in hollywood, by the way. i love the guy. i don't care how crazy he is as long as he is talented. but he is not going to win. spielberg i think may win. you know who he had going to bat for him? bill clinton .

>> that's big.

>> they called out the big dog . so it may happen.

>> david edelstein , great to have you with us.

>> thank you.

>> looking forward to a big