Nearly $1 billion spent on campaign ads in 2012

>>> it wouldn't be elicks day if i department bring out the decision app. i want to do these scenarios without ohio and get everybody to react to it. how would the president get there without ohio assuming pennsylvania ? you would have to give him wisconsin . you have to give iowa . they believe in that. that leaves him 17 short as you can see here so what would it take? it would take a virginia moving that way, and it would take a nevada . major garrett , has this been the problem for mitt romney all along? that wasn't that implausible of a scenario to go without ohio .

>> well, that's right. and the president's re- election campaign feels very good about nevada and iowa right now. they believe those states are almost nearly won even before the polls close. so if you take that as an assumption, the romney campaign will privately concede nevada but not iowa . they totally think it's a jump ball . they think wisconsin is a jump ball , too. the map tells me one thing that i think is interesting and counter intuitive about so much that was written about this campaign. the coalition may not be as important as white voters in northern ohio , wisconsin , and pennsylvania . they may be the ones who, in fact, ensure the re-election. the broader coalition will be significant but the white voters may be most pivotal.

>> let me introduce the crowded table. jeff greenfield , the guru. i should have had you write the trivia question today. you usually have an odd question or two and that was major garrett . jeff, you'll like this one. if romney wins today, what will he have done that hasn't happened since 1928 ?

>> i have no idea.

>> a republican will win the white house without a bush.

>> steve schmidt?

>> those are those in-depth, unknown facts.

>> if we assume this is all about white vote versus nonwhite vote then why wasn't mitt romney favored in ohio and pennsylvania earlier when there is this intense older white vote? what happened?

>> let detroit go bankrupt. so you have with the auto industry the definition of mitt romney over the spring, over the summer. he's underperforming with the white vote compared to where he is with the rest of the country and that early definition of mitt romney by the obama campaign if they go on to win ohio tonight will have paid off big time for them.

>> melanie barnes, i just did this via the coalitions we talked about. we're going to go mitt romney . iowa and florida and if you assume this coalition of more younger voters, wisconsin or high growth states, the sort of college educated white folk, that would be north carolina , new hampshire, virginia, wisconsin , nevada , and would leave colorado as the state that would keep us up all night. why isn't that sensible?

>> i think the bottom line is that, "a," it will be a diverse vote no matter what. it will be white .

>> more diverse than four years ago?

>> we have seen the voter registration numbers up and the early vote numbers up with regard to african-americans and latinos. we know that educated -- college educated white women are very active and engaged around a series of issues that are important to them, so i think it will be a diverse vote but the bottom line goes to the top of this conversation that there are many routes to victory to 270 for the president that dent necessarily exist for mitt romney .

>> the one thing that speaks to your question, when i was out there, romney 's background was hurting him in a way that i think it hurt maybe nowhere else. the rich guy, i was here, and this was a while ago, this tax return thing was bugging folks because this is a state, a big union state, 28% is union. unions get their message across. i think out there that all seemed to be cutting maybe as nowhere else.

>> we have to sneak in a break and then much more from everybody. the panel sticking around with us. we call it "daily joe" or we're all "morning rundown." anyway,