Recapping the polls

>>> different pattern emerging, president obama is ahead in new hampshire , tighter in nevada and north carolina . joining me, director of the marist poll. good to see you in person.

>> welcome to the home of the new york yankees.

>> you're going to blow the playoff run.

>> i am worried.

>> we want the beltway series in washington. we have been looking at this as sort of the generic, the general all nine states. what is your take away?

>> i think what you're seeing is a very big difference when obama is 45, 46 as months ago when everything was 44, now he gets to 48, 49, 50, you can say it makes a difference --

>> it does feel like 48 is a big difference --

>> seeing a change in the right direction in the approval rating.

>> massive gender gaps. two places stuck out, nevada and new hampshire , look at this. 16 point gender gap in nevada among women. leads by 20 among women in new hampshire . social issues, any time that moved new hampshire big time .

>> big effort at the republican convention to try to close this gender gap , obviously not paying off in these states.

>> only place where romney has double digit lead among men was nevada . it is not an equal one to one. early voting . i am struck by this. obama voters seem to know they're supposed to vote early. look at the numbers in nevada and north carolina . nevada , people say they plan to vote early, 53, 43. north carolina , vote early, obama , 57-41.

>> that's the organizational difference and also we saw it four years ago with obama versus mccain. obama did better among early voters. in a sense, you saw this ad that obama has taken out in battleground states which is almost a closing ad where he talks directly to the camera with new message of economic patriotism, and that's what you do at the end. it is the end or start of election month as opposed to election day . the obama people seem to have a better organizational handle on this than romney .

>> the other thing we saw, a movement over time was the right direction, wrong trend.

>> that's what's lifting an incumbent president. saw it especially in new hampshire where he opened a significant lead over mitt romney .

>> what was the right track, wrong track?

>> closed negative 20 points now to negative 7 points. still more people see it as not going well, but a huge change there, that plays an incumbent's way.

>> how people read the state poll, it is about trends at this point.

>> yeah.

>> everything we come out with is a second poll in the last month.

>> go through the same nine states. 110 electoral votes in the nine battleground states . we're going to see romney needs a shift of the whole discussion and reframing of the campaign. he can't just target an extra trip to virginia and ohio.

>> a fuller picture.

>> change the dynamic of the numbers.

>> the entire poll, the raw data on the mayor's website. for the conspiracy theorists, go look at it, play with the numbers yourself apparently. thank