Poll: Obama narrowly leads Romney

>> journal" poll after the most tumultuous month. the e team innic jobs report. under fire and the immigration decision. $100 million in tv ads spent in the swing states and on the surface it appears that little has changed. in the numbers, a different story. leaving the race more defined and the country more polarized, if that's possible. the president narrowly leads romney 47-44. nearly identical to last month. you find key shifts. the president is on up ticks with support from hispanics and mid-westerners and voter who is are college educated. mitt romney 's support grew among white women and white independents. in the swing states , the president's lead is larger than it is overall. 50-42. one reason for the edge may be the fact that the president is spending $25 million on a purely anti- romney ad campaign in the states.

>> those are the ones that are launched this week and appear to have taken a toll on personal ratings. after three months, his negative rating is back to a high of 39%. our poll exposed the president's weaknesses as well. his job rating is upside down. 47% approve and 48% disapprove. it's the first net negative that he had all year in over six months. his rating is worse on the economy. 42% approve and 53% disapprove. in the past month, they have grown more mess mystic. the first time the number has been over 60 since january. the president has a new argument to respond to the negatives. the economy and unemployment.

>> the debate in this election is not whether we need to do better. everybody understands the economy is not where it needs to be. the debate in this election is about how do we do better?

>> a fascinating part about our polls and shows how divided the country is. voters from both parties appear to be putting the political glasses on first when thinking about the big issues that are out there. it's true when it comes to the economy. asked whether the economy is recovering, 47% didn't believe it. drilled deeper into the numbers, 75% of democrats believe the economy is recovering and 29% of republicans believe it is recovering. we see the same divide by party when asked about what the role of government should be. 75% of democrats believe the government needs to do more to meet the challenges of folks. 76% think government is doing too many things. the point is, you are seeing a hardening inside the obama romney numbers and the coalitions being formed and built. different coalitions than in the past, but they are building coalitions that get them there. can they get a coalition that gets them to 50? when the supreme court rules, the justices begin to debate and many haven't made up their mines about how they feel. there is a hard core base for the president's health care law and a bigger hard core base against it. there is a surprisingly large number of folks with mixed feelings about it. 28% would be pleased if the law is ruled constitutional and 34% would have mixed feelings. 39% said their feelings would be mixed if the law is struck down. or pollsters believe the court's ruling could be crucial in forming the views of those voters who are sitting in that mixed feelings category. they are persuadable, waiting to see what the high court says. both are warming up responses as they await the big verdict. here's romney in virginia.

>> if it is deemed not constitutional, it will have been wasted on something that does not help the american people . if it is deemed to stand, then i will tell you we will have to have a president that will get rid of obama care. we will stop it on day one.

>> the romney campaign and mitt romney has a response ready no matter what comes down. here's the president defending his health care law at a fund-raiser in miami.

>> you can decide whether to roll back the reforms that we put in place that prevent insurance companies from discriminating against people who are sick. i believe it's the right thing to do and i believe health reform was the right thing to do. i believe it was right it make sure that everybody in this country gets decent health care and is not bankrupt when they get sick. that's what i believe. but it's up to you. you decide.

>> as you see, it appears that if it's struck down, have a conversation and have a campaign conversation about what do do you then?

>> finally, if it's wednesday, we have election results. it's a story of survival for two long time incumbent who is face primaries. democrat charlie rangle gets to make a run in congress after he beat off challenger in the 13th district . 45-40. it was close. the crowded primary field helped a little bit. he held it since 1970 . it was considered up for grabs and censured by the house for 11 ethics violations including failure to pay taxes. even the president hinted he would like to see charlie rangle resign at the time. he may be testimonying back. keep an eye on the 18th and 19th district . democrats are trying to make them competitive and policy whether there is a chance to pick up more than a handful of seats in november. another story, utah senator oren hatch breezed to victory. he won 67% of the vote, but not every incumbent was so lucky. john sullivan who represents oklahoma's first district is going home after he was upset by a tea party challenger. speak of oklahoma, the second district put up one of the last blue dog democrats retiring there. republicans believe both the republican and democratic primaries ended up in run offs and we don't know who the nominees are going to be. they believe they can pick up