Oscar frontrunners and long shots

>>> bust out the tux or your college sweatshirt and sweat pants which is probably what i'll be wearing for the academy awards this sunday.

>> every day.

>> will lincoln lovers like toure with a best picture oscar , will anne sing to a statue and win over s.e. with a better speech? will this cyclist make it to the end of the show ? i usually do catch the finale. it's the beginning that i have some problems with. anyway --

>> weird.

>> we have put our money where our mouths are. it's about 100 miles from me. i'm not sure if i'm supposed to admit that on tv but i'll surely brag about it on monday.

>> you won't.

>> here's where the smart money is, pat morrow on the phone, head odds maker for an online gambling destination, and pat, if that is your real name , i want to ask you about the race and that's best picture . and we have been -- we were originally told that this is " lincoln 's" year. and then in more recently it's " argo ." there's a two-way race there. i'm heari ining lately and i think ebert said there's a flurry of buzz of "silver linings playbook." we see this with two heavyweights duking it out and maybe a third one to sneak up and win. what do you think are the odds for " silver lining 's play book" of a smart long shot on sunday night?

>> thank you for having me back on. i can confirm my first name is pat. there you go. outside of that, yeah, we have seen a bit of a trickling down on the silver lining play book odds. they were up 40 to 1 and now 20 to 1 now. we still anticipate it being a two- horse race between " argo " and " lincoln ." there's the smallest chance " silver lining 's play book" can surprise us.

>> pat, to that point, typically the best director is director of the best picture and you have i think spielberg is the favorite to win best director so doesn't that make him the favorite in terms of " lincoln " winning best picture ?

>> to be honest, you are right and what we're hoping for on sunday and prefer " lincoln " wins and i think you have to go back to 2005 was the last time you didn't have the best picture and the best director lineup. i think it was "crash" won best picture .

>> right.

>> and " brokeback mountain " director won for best director . outside of that, usually you see that matchup. it's a very interesting scenario this year and would have expected spielberg and " lincoln " one-two together but the problem is ben affleck wasn't nominated to win. that was kind of a head scratcher for us and then " argo " winning the golden globes and screen actors guild and back in january we had " argo " 7 to 1 odds and now flipped them. "linco " lincoln " is now 5 to 1. it kind of flipped the scenario on its head.

>> pat, i mean, it's not really actually a best picture race. i mean, it's as if everybody's shown their cards. the directors, the producers, the writers and the actors. and the form of sag given awards to " argo ." everybody's said we'll vote for them. there's no chance that any other picture wins. it is not a two-picture race. " argo " will win, spielberg , day-lewis, hathaway. the only thing i would like your advice about is best supporting actor . there's a real race. waltz could win, deniro, jones. maybe hoffman. who would you suggest we go for here?

>> i think with that best supporting actor spot, it's a rare situation where all nominees have won an academy award before. my personal favorite is waltz. it's one of my favorite most versatile actors right now. we actually had him having said that 30 to 1 prior to the golden globes and he won. golden globes , those are two biggest indicators right now and waltz and tommy lee jones split those. deniro it was 6 to 1 and now plus 450 now and that's a spot where if you think " silver lining 's playbook" if you think it's a shot, i think robert deniro 9 to 2 probably the best shot of a long shot to win on sunday.

>> well, pat morrow , head odds maker, thanks so much for joining us and weighing in. we'll have to check your predictions against toure's later.

>> thanks so much, guys.

>> so guys, i will watch --

>> you're such a loser!

>> what?

>> such a loser!

>> beautiful.

>> updated maps, as always.

>> oh man.

>> i'll watch the oscars. i'm in the oscar pool and made my picks and the best part about sunday is going to happen at 1:00 where daytona 500 begins. greatest day in racing and for the first time in history, a woman is starting on the poll. that's danica patrick .

>> cool.

>> who i'm forced to like now because she's my driver's teammate, tony stewart . i'm team smoke. go 14. whose new sponsor is bass pro . i can't wait. anyone else going to watch?

>> i'm also forced to cheer for her, the only one i know anything about.

>> dale jr . is my man. we hung out a couple of years ago. great dude. i won't be watching.

>> steve?

>> wow. here i am talking about having trouble staying awake through the oscars. cars driving in circles for three hours. have fun with that, s.e.

>> i will.

>> go fast, turn left .

>> for those that don't win big this weekend, we'll tell you how to turn that golden idea in to a gold mine . tips of a start-up pro ahead. [ susan