The Cycle | January 30, 2013
>>> with the president full steam ahead on immigration reform and the senate's plan, two pressure points we should be watching. one is a trigger that requires border security and the second is the president's vow to bring legislation to the floor if congress does not act quickly enough. could these two points dash hopes of a deal? fellow at the center for politics at the lbj public affairs . a contributor for msnbc and nbc latino and we discovered the important step. we have a due date that is three days apart. congratulations to you. thanks for joining us.
>> i find out tomorrow if it's a girl or boy.
>> will you tell us?
>> i will.
>> a full discussion of this. we can share ultra sowns and such.
>> back to the other story. less important obviously. you have rip with a few exceptions, they see reform as sb 1070 and stopping anxiouso babies and to your point, the senator was on the show today and made interesting comments about immigration reform . let's take a listen.
>> look, i love and respect marco. he is amazingly naive on the issue. this is the same old formula that we dealt with before including when it passed in 1986 . that is promises of enforcement and immediate amnesty. of course the promises of enforcement never materialized. the amnesty happens immediately.
>> he is talking about marco rubio . he put himself cross wise with a lot of republicans and put himself out there on immigration reform ?
>> believe it or not, i agree with david on a different point. in terms of marco being naive, the actual piece of legislation of immigration by the president and by the senate is strong and it addresses the weaknesses of 1986 and the 1965 reform. where rubio is being naive is not thinking this is going to help with the 2016 presidential run. it's not going to help them. it's going to hurt him with the base. you you want to run for president, you have to get out of the primary. you don't see folks from peoria or paris liking his stand on immigration. on the democratic side, he thinks he might get cross over democratic voters, but immigration will be a president obama initiative. people will relate to the president and marco rubio will be a long second afterthought.
>> senator viter aside, if marco rubio 's goal was to convince the far right republicans to consider immigration reform , his interview with rush limbaugh went a good way in doing that. the figure that is that this 11 million illegal immigrants , i don't know is actually current. a lot of people are suggesting that that figure might be low. the real count might be somewhere in the 15 to 20 or 30 or 40 million illegal immigrants or migrants we have to sort of address here. that brings up two issues for me. if that's true, republicans who oppose immigration reform really need to come up with a good way of trying to deport 40 million people. that sounds absurd and impractical to me. they need to get on board with how to address the reality of the situation we are living in. two, if the figure is high, i'm wondering if the cost of dealing with a large group of people who might be at the back of the line for 20 years, if that cost has been figured into any of the immigration plans we are discussing.
>> the other point is i don't know if you have seen a day without a mexican , not only the cost of the lo justices, but day to day what happened. the services would really come to a halt. there is absolutely the issue of the cost and we also need to think about the income that foaling these immigrants into our society would bring. they would be paying full taxes. they would be contributing to the social safety net . this is important because latinos are a younger population and non- latinos in particular, whites are aging at a much more rapid rate. they are older and having less kids. latinas are having more children and contribute to the older generation.
>> the political argument that is looking at marco rubio . we know it's the number you see on the screen. obama over romney over latino voters. you have the growing latino areas. i wonder if there is a second argument that republicans are considering or ought to consider. that is how they are toned on this and defined the rhetoric and affects non- latino voters. how much do you think this hurt the republican party 's brain that it took this long to get to this point on this issue?
>> well, the argument is also that when you want compassionate conservatism, it's not just the target group , but also for john latinos . the fiscal conservative who is may not love or hate latinos , but they cringe at the rhetoric. i agree that this is not just an issue about latinos , but softening the general image of the republican party . it's gone so far to the right with the peak of the 2010 tea party movement, that they try to buff the edges out.
>> the first thing is border security . with enforcement promises never materialized, that is untrue. the 2007 bill asked for several things that we are super serving or doing measure they asked for. we have 21,000 border patrol agents zeechl over 600 miles. they asked for 300 towers. we have nine. annual border crossings are down to 85,000 in 2011 . thank you for pointing that out to me. steve? it seems to me that border security is this thing that is actually working and republicans use to say we will never agree to a pathway. we will keep holding this up forever.
>> the border has never been so enforced as it is foeds. they should read the immigration reform and control act to see how they do different border enforcement. with that being said, i want to point out it's not just about the border. the border is enforced, but it's about the technology and the visa tracking system . anywhere from 30 to 50% of undocumented folks in this country today came here legally. they came here with a visa or by plane or boat or car. if we just focus on the border, we are missing half of the picture.
>> thank you. good luck tomorrow.
>> thank you. take care.
>> she can't lose. boy or girl . it doesn't matter. it's a win-win.
>> straight ahead , steve is quivering with excitement for this one. kerry's move to state. a huge day in massachusetts politics. fa in a come back story. all that ahead. .