The Cycle | December 11, 2012
>>> the chinese dragon is awake and ready to roar a. new report of the national intelligence council predicts within the next 20 years china will overtake the u.s. as the world's largest economy and suggests asia in general will have more overall power than the u.s. and europe combined. but before we freak out and preemptively launch economic warfare to stay on top, our next guest says america stands to gain a lot from china 's growth and china 's leadership may be open to the type of reforms to strengthen our relationship. we have donald gross, he's author of "the china fallacy, how the u.s. can benefit of chi in's rise and avoid another cold war ." donald , welcome. i have to say i've talked to both folks on both sides of this argument. i had a long conversation with governor jon huntsman who talked about china being very healthy and robust and our relationship very important, one of the most important in the world, in fact. i talked to gordon chang a number of time who is talked about china being well, pretty evil and collapsing and wanting tock an eminent threat to our country. who's right?
>> well, i have to say that i strongly agree with governor huntsman. he was after all the ambassador to china .
>> he's a leading american politician . i think that he has a very good sense of what the chinese government is thinking after extensive dealings he's had and lived in china several years.
>> and, you know, as even a missionary so my strong sympathies and my, you know, agreement intellectually is with governor huntsman. i think when you speak about the economy, fact is that we're coming out of an economic recession right now as we all know. our rate of growth projected about 2%. the chinese gdp is about 8%. and fact is that china 's third largest export market of u.s. goods and services . actually, the largest export market for agricultural products so in the coming years we're looking to expand exports to china . in both goods and services and we will also benefit from chinese capital that's coming in to the united states in to various industries so the fact is we have a very interdependent economic relationship as treasury secretary geithner has said, we have a great deal, we in china have a great deal invested in each other's success and we have to realize that looking toward the future.
>> i think we're sold this bill of goods that china 's about to become dominant and thus the u.s. will be subservient but we need each other to be pre-emine pre-eminent. let me read you an article. even after it becomes a world's largest economy china 's prosperity dependent on the properity on the rivals like the united states . china will not get ahead if its rivals do not also prosper. so, china needs us to be powerful just as much as we need them.
>> that's exactly right. and going back to that national intelligence council report that has just been released, if you look at the report, it says that for that positive scenario looking toward 2030 is a case where u.s. and china get along better politically and work together just as you were saying. the chinese will have a greater stake in the stability of the international system and a positive scenario that's laid out in that report is, in fact, greater u.s.- china cooperation. a negative scenario would be where the two countries start working at cross purposes with each other and cannot communicate, cannot resolve the problems that exist between them. that would be something we seriously have to be concerned about.
>> donald , so, i mean, okay. there is all the talk and maybe mutual interest and cooperation and there's talk about china catching or surpassing the united states as a superpower in the world, whatever that means. when you look at what that's meant for the u.s., you have troops, military bases , tangled up in geo political stuff across the globe. what kind of superpower does china want to be?
>> well, china does not in my opinion want to be the kind of superpower that we normally think of in a military and strategic sense when we use that term. actually, the report that just came out said that the u.s. would remain dominant as the leading power in 2030 . it was not as if -- it is not if the chinese are seeking or will replace the united states . that's not the case. what you have to remember just going to your key points on bases and military assets, the u.s. dwarfs china in forces. a couple of examples. the united states has nuclear warhea warheads. the u.s. has 11 aircraft carrier battle groups each with about 55 advanced fighter aircraft . chinese have one aircraft carrier they bought, it was built in 1984 in the ukraine. they use it for training purposes. actually, it was purchased to be used as a floating casino and then the pla, chinese military , decided it would be good for training. you got to put all of these issues, the military factors especially, in perspective. we are ahead of china in virtually every and i would argue every major technological capacity in military forces and military capabilities . that should give us the kind of confidence we need to diplomatically work out the serious security issues that have arisen with china over the last couple of years. but we don't often hear about that, do we? we hear about the future potential chinese capability that we're all supposed to be shaking in our our boots about. i'm sure that at the pentagon where they have a very realistic view of comparability they would rather be in our vishoes than the chinese.
>> thank you very much.
>>> another place america's falling we hind china , education. and yet, as our resident mom krystal will tell you, getting your kid in a great school is tougher than ever. a former admissions officer cracks the code on the application process.