The Cycle | September 27, 2012
>>> it's been a tough stretch for mitt romney . flee weeks ago both candidates were tied. obama has pulled four points ahead in the average. this isn't stopping diehard republicans who say the mainstream polls have a liberal bias . look at dickmorse.com. even rick perry is jumping on on the bandwagon. he's plugs unskewed.com. it compiles existing polling data and meshes it with the rasmussen poll and voila, big leads for romney . if you look at the unskewed.com average it has romney leading by eight points.
>> it's going to be a landslide.
>> rasmussen has obama ahead by 4. i think quickly there are things to separate two different things here with theories they put out there. one is the peer con sear see side. there's a plot by the liberal media to undermine romney .
>> which would never happen.
>> when fox news polls are showing it, i don't know. the other thing is there's seeds of an argument about systemic bias in polls. they're getting it wrong because there's too few democrats and republicans. i've heard that from democrats in polls in 2004 , the other way. i heard it from republicans in 2008 , when obama was ahead, 2008 and 2010 midterms. the polls have a good track recent recently.
>> the sense i have in states like ohio and virginia and florida and pennsylvania when i talk to folks, obama is ahead. i think that's clear. where i am a little skeptical is the margin by which he is ahead. if you look at 2008 was a banner year for democrats , and in florida the population of democrats -to-res democrats -to-republicans was 3 points. you had similar numbers in ohio . politics does not move fast enough for you to have a six-point margin in a state like florida or ohio which are called swing states for a reason. so i don't think the polls you see today with these nine -- point leads and ten -- point leads are going to turn out on election day . that isn't as sustainable or possible feat in three years, four years.
>> here's the context to add to that. in terms of the overall the margins at 9, 10 points. let's see multiple pols and the next three in florida . we can call these outliers. on the other issue and what conservatives are saying, there's too many democratic needs and republican needs, there are too few. what we see is -- this is political science found this. a lot of people we traditionally at republicans now self-identify as independents, and a lot of people who are traditionally democratic who vote democratic in the past identify themselves assist independent to pollsters call themselves democrats again. this is a recent, emerging phenomenon. they are polling the right people, but they get more people identifying themselves as democrats and fewer identifying themselves assist republicans. you have the right poll. it looks different now because of develops in politics.
>> what you take is unskewed.com seriously.
>> this is a conspiracy. that's the conspiracy.
>> this is a real conspiracy. it's called poll truthism. we depress the gop to suppress them so they won't turn out in november. this is a total alternate reality sort of mind trip.
>> speaking of polls, though. there's another attempt -- we'll make another attempt to dissect two of the country's most misunderstood voting blocs. nascar fans and sportsmen, s.e. is a sportswoman. you have info. i want to hear it.
>> there are misconceptions about sportsmen, hunters and anglers, blood-thirsty hicks that pull the lever. this is a voting bloc democrats shouldn't take for granted because they're incredibly interested in conservation. an interesting poll from the national wildlife federation found among hunters and anglers 47%, almost half value conservation issues as the same level of importance as gun rights . you can believe 13% put gun rights below conservation efforts. hunters and fishers are land conservationists, they want sustainable waterways and populations protected. it's an interesting sort of breakdown if democrats wanted to look at sportsmen. the other group, nascar voters, i wrote a the lot about them in 2008 . they're actually not as poll larized and republican as you think. in 2008 when i was doing research, they positive broke down at 35% republican, 28% democrat, 40% women and 20% minorities. actually, we have some recent data and some good news for democrats . obama 's pulled ahead among nascar voters. that's in two weeks. two weeks ago they were tied, and now obama is up 7%. it's interesting.
>> i mean, that zogby poll sounds interesting, they polled 800 people. it's a little small. usually around 2,000, 3,000 people. one of the things that we see is democrats are always fighting for the white male . the blue collar white male vote. let's show a bunch of people of people doing cultural things to get those white men either hunting or drinking a beer. there's george bush eating corn with the folks. john kerry out hunting looking a little crazy but he's trying to get that working class vote.
>> as i said, nascar , don't underestimate. it's 40% women and 20% minorities.
>> s.e., to your point about conservation. i ran in a rural district in virginia, and the land and water very much a part of the culture there. it's a conservative district. we found exactly what you're talking about. a sort of progressive message on environmentalism was very -- it was very well received in the district and even the republican member of congress who is down the line conservative on every other issue has had to temper and be a little more mode rate on environmental issues.
>> they're misunderstood voters. there are opportunities on both sides to get them.
>> we cleared it up a little bit here. up next from hunters and nascar fans from bureaucrats in business suits . both are there making their pitch, but who will hit the sweet spot ? the chair joins us live from richmond straight ahead . with the spark