The Oscars: Who are the favorites?

>> with us tony scott . tony, i'm shocked louis said something in his package that was actually intelligent and illuminating.

>> which thing?

>> this is a record year for hollywood. we talk about every day on this show, all the great writings go to tv, but the movie industry 's doing okay.

>> the movies this year were pretty good. one of the reasons they sold so many tickets is they actually put out a lot of movies that people wanted to see, including movies that grown-up people wanted to see, not just superhero movies or fantasy movies.

>> that's a great trend. do you have a favorite of the year? again, forget about what the academy's looking at, but just a movie that when you left, you say, wow, that one moved me.

>> i think there were a few of them. one of them is "bests of the southern wild." i had heard a little bit about its reception at sundance.

>> and the writer, what's her name again.

>> lucy alibar.

>> north florida , came out of nowhere.

>> and the director, a group of these film makers were down in normalcy working on short films and documentaries and put together in extraordinary movie. for me, that was the real discovery, the real rush.

>> let's start with our picks for best picture . brian, who do you have?

>> i mean, i hate to go to the house, i think " argo 's" going to win.

>> i don't know. mike?

>> i selected " argo ."

>> you did too. tony scott . i've been wrong too many times in the past so i picked " argo ."

>> i picked " argo " if "silver linings playbook" isn't in the running.

>> it is. i'm torn. i think bradley's going to win best actor .

>> you think he's going to upset daniel day-lewis ?

>> i do. you'd win a lot of money if you won that bet.

>> if she wins.

>> i know what you're saying but i think he spoke to people in that roll.

>> incredible, incredible acting.

>> finally, after all those other movies.

>> if ben affleck had been nominated, would he have won?

>> often they go together, best director .

>> why wasn't he nominated?

>> because the field of best pictures is bigger now. it's as many as ten. so mathematically there's always going to be people left out.

>> what's joe's pick?

>> lincoln.

>> lincoln?

>> daniel day-lewis was extraordinary.

>> he was.

>> the other ones out though, of course, les miserables , and amour. " les miserables ," great movie, huh?

>> some people thought so.

>> good movie?

>> it's a movie that for people who love that show.

>> nbc universal , just play along.

>> he picked anne hathaway , right?

>> i thought that les miserables was very effective. i have to say, for me i could not get past how much i hate that music.

>> looking down those people's throats while they were singing it at me, i was weeping at the end, but for different reasons.

>> just don't say it.

>> i haven't seen that one.

>> give us some other highlights from the year. " zero dark thirty ," obviously very controversial, and i have a lot of my republican friends that went to see it, and i said, so, has it been excluded because it's a great film but it has -- they go, no, it's just not as good as your last movie. it's just not that great of a movie.

>> i think it's a very good movie. i think the hurt locker is tremendous. and i hope more people have discovered that. that was the lowest grossing best picture winner ever because nobody at that time wanted to see a picture about the iraq war . i think " zero dark thirty " is a very strong piece of film-making. i think the performances are very good. i think it has been hurt a little bit by the controversy, and it's always a little messy when you make a claim that well, we're making this claim, we've reported it, it's the truth, it's as accurate as we could get it, and then it turns out, people come out and say, well, no.

>> in the middle of a political debate.

>> yeah.

>> and certainly a lot of progressives --

>> right.

>> -- reacted reflexively to it, and hollywood, some would suggest is a center-left town.

>> but it's also a very politically cautious town. i think one of the reasons that the academy may have backed off of kathryn bigelow and this movie is that too much controversy, too much bad feeling, too much ambiguity makes them very uncomfortable.

>> all right. best actor ?

>> i think daniel day-lewis . i think -- you know, it was a really good year. denzel washington was terrific.

>> oh, that was a great movie.

>> great performance.

>> "flight" may have been my favorite movie of the year. of course like every red-blooded american male, i see the trailer and it's like, yeah, man, give me shelter, he's flying upside down, and i go in expecting this action movie . it's just the opposite and i'm so glad it was. when that thing ended, i thought --

>> there's so many good movies out there.

>> i don't want to blow it, but it was a surprise.

>> it really was, because it starts out as one thing and then it turns into this character study about a guy battling with his addiction, which is the kind of movie we've seen a lot of times before, but denzel washington brings so much intelligence, and he's so good at being charismatic but not entirely likable. i think if daniel day-lewis wasn't there being the guy on the $5 bill --

>> tough.

>> best actress , the choices?

>> who do you like?

>> i'm looking for a little of an upset here. i think it's going to be emmanuel riva for "amour". sunday is her birthday. she'll be 86.

>> i've heard naomi watts is great.

>> jennifer lawrence .

>> wow, this is going to be interesting, tony scott . thank you very, very much. "morning