No deal in sight to avert the fiscal cliff

>>> chief white house correspond correspondent is mike allen with his world-famous "playbook." let me ask you quickly about what we've been talking about this morning. are you as pessimistic as some around the table or as john boehner claims to be when he said yesterday that we're, quote, nowhere that a geel will get done over the course of the next four weeks?

>> i'm going to update my prediction. i've been predicting that they were going to make a deal on december 23rd , that they were going to go to the very last moment before christmas but that they weren't going to want to bring congress back after christmas . things went decidedly south last week on both sides. one democrat e-mailed me who's in the room. he said republicans have taken to shouting at us. i now think they're going to make a deal on december 31st . i think they are going to avoid going over the cliff. they don't want to take the risk even if you think you can blame the other guy, even if you think you can fix it in a week or two, that's taking a real chance with what the credit raters will do, what the stock market will do. and so i think that now congress is going to come back after christmas . bad news, not just for the families of members and senators, but the policemen, the snack bar workers, the other aides. that whole city that exists within the capitol now looks like it's going to come back after christmas , if nothing else, because if they're not going to make a deal, they're going to have to look like they're trying. they can't afford to be on christmas vacation if we're about to go over the cliff.

>> mike, what happens to the president's plans? he usually goes to hawaii for christmas and new year's. he'd have to stay in washington.

>> i don't know that. because the president's not going to want to look like he's a captive of washington. he did stay here once before and then extended his vacation. that was part of why i've been predicting december 23rd . but these stages of grief by both sides are just going slower than they expected. they're doing the dance, but it's just so slow. so i think it's possible that nothing happens next week, that next week we get a real proposal from either side. but they're not making -- we've been talking about this for months and months. but the guys in the actual room have only been doing this for a couple days. and they're not ready to concede yet. they're still at their sort of starting gate positions.

>> mike, is there any sort of quiet blue dog action on this on either the right or the left, more moderate members who are talking maybe offline who may step into the breach if there is one?

>> there's a little bit, and there's certainly an opportunity for them. of course, that caucus is shrinking and creating this very surprising, amazing spectacle where next year you're going to have more polarized caucuses, fewer moderates in both of them. but you're right, those offline conversations, if somebody has a good idea, there's definitely a market for it. and there's going to be a push by some republican members to propose something specific. and this could be legislation. this could be briefing by the leadership. this could be a speech by the speaker. but that is in the very early stages. they haven't even started circulating paper like that. that's why i think that this may be a wasted week in these negotiations, real work gets done next week.

>> i would be willing to cut a deal just to go home if i were a member of congress .

>> i thought you were talking about yourself this morning.

>> today.

>> beautiful. go home and get a new tie, we'd excuse you for that. i want to ask you about your lead story this morning on politico.com. the 2016 contenders already courting mega donors. three of them, i guess, paid a visit to the venetian. and we all know what that means.

>> that's right. that means that they're visiting the ultimate sugar daddy , sheldon adelson , who broke a record this year, the casino owner who gave $100 million to the republican side of the ledger this time. he told me in an interview a few months ago that he plans to continue playing in republican politics. you've got the louisiana governor , bobby jindal , the virginia governor , bob mcdonald , ohio governor john kasich all dropping by to talk to mr. adelson. ken vogel on politico's site has told adelson and friends he's looking for someone to run with executive experience. that's intriguing. that suggested he might be looking beyond paul ryan , beyond marco rubio to one of these governors. it's also happening on the democratic side, martin o'malley, one of the candidates who for sure wants to run is having a fund-raiser here in chevy chase , maryland, today. then he's going to be out in los angeles this week talking to big funders. another possible democrat, andrew cuomo , your governor there in new york, to be here in d.c. today talking to new york members and senators.

>> never too soon to get started on 2016 . mike allen with a look at the