Scarborough: If GOP loses, movement conservatives will ask 'How did we lose?'

>> get out your cell phones, everybody. ed schultz . and the editor of the new yorker -- oh, my god, you're back. wait a minute. are you sure? i didn't think you'd come back.

>> gentlemen says he's going to be nice.

>> after i was accosted, sipping my drink, he starts yelling at me. it made me sad.

>> i'm sorry. would you please not be so abras abrasive with joe this morning.

>> you're going to get your just desserts at the 92nd street "y" tonight.

>> you're in trouble.

>> wait until tonight.

>> the bbc katty kay is back with us. we're going to let her actually talk today.

>> in a second.

>> ed?

>> ed, what are you looking at? a lot of states are in play but what states are you looking at?

>> well, i don't think the president will lose wisconsin and i think that he has a very good shot in virginia . the demographics in virginia have changed a great deal. the eastern part of the state , the todd warner area has old dough mminion university. it has norfolk state . it has hampton university . there's a real effort on the eastern part of the straight, a strong minority. also the military vote is not a lock for romney in the eastern part of the state so i think virginia is real hadly in play.

>> that closes it -- the polls close at 7:00 there. we could know pretty early how this race is going.

>> we could. that would be a big loss for romney if the president wins virginia , so that's the state i'm looking at there. i think the president can win ohio but it's going to be closer than the polls think. we may not have a decision on ohio tonight. i really believe that. the provisional ballots could be the swing.

>> so let's talk about which is wisconsin . i think that's a fascinating state . obviously it's a state you know very well. chuck todd was here earlier and i said is wisconsin a sleeper? is that one of those things we wake up the next day and say they elected republicans in 2010 . you had the recount. does the voting -- the pool of voters grow so much that it favors --

>> the question for which is with which is, is it a state that's politically exhausted? they've been through a lot over the past two years but brilliantly what governor walker did, he ran against the recall. he spent most of his money telling the residents of wisconsin that this process is wrong. you hired me to do the job. let me finish the job, and a lot of people in the state didn't like the recall. but keep in mind the democrats won more recall elections in that state than the republicans did. they took the senate back. so president obama knows where the breadbasket is. he's been 0 to madison just within the last 48 hours . it was a huge rally. i think it was a very smart and calculated move.

>> and what's interesting about that, katty, if you're right, virginia and wisconsin , if that's in obama 's column, he could lose ohio . he could lose florida . he would be four shy, he could get that in new hampshire. so that's why the midwest. he should be winning wisconsin .

>> they kept him so under wraps. you wonder whether he's had much impact. i don't know where ryan had been. i don't know if it's because of the differences in policy over the budget that he came out with because of women and they're scared of ryan 's more socially conservative position on women voters. for some reason they kept him under wrams and so i think where he could have helped in wisconsin , you have to keep asking if they had chosen portman as the running mate, would ohio ?

>> the big problem, david, early on is you had separation between paul ryan and mitt romney .

>> well, it was hard to tell.

>> the presidential candidate going back and forth so much. it's hard to tell where the differences are for a lot of voters.

>> oh, gosh.

>> he's baiting me.

>> he is.

>> unfortunately in this case i agree with you so i can't pick a fight. that was fascinating where paul ryan would come out early and then the romney campaign would run away from paul's position and you just wonder why they select him if they weren't going to use him. if he just with wins wisconsin it's huge victory.

>> and he probably won't. i think ed is right. i think he probably wanted to be narrow. i think you'll know a lot by 7:00. i agree with you, virginia is crucial. if obama wins virginia --

>> there's not a path --

>> i don't see it. i really don't see it. and because the polls for all the discussion about nate silver , nate silver is aggregating polls. he's aggregating legitimate polls.

>> it's a spread sheet .

>> the spread in ohio is not nothing. and people in the obama campaign may be cocky when they start talking about florida or even north carolina , which i think would be amazing. i don't think it will happen.

>> and just havevirginia.

>> just virginia .

>> if romney loses virginia and virginia in a way represents the challenge that the republican party has in the future with the changing demographics of the country, right? you have all of these hispanics moving into northern virginia who the democrats have a message for. the republicans at the moment don't have a message for young hispanic voters and they will have to change that. that's why they'll lose virginia if they change it.

>> if mitt romney loses by a point, let's say, isn't that going to be a re-examination of mitt romney trying to dart far right of rick perry on immigration issues that could cost them nevada, colorado, virginia .

>> i think, joe , there's three things that were unanticipated hurdles that the romney camp had to go through. i think the automobile issue became a giant that they had to deal with. i think akin and the murdoch story became something that certainly the romney camp didn't anticipate. and the third thing was one of the reasons why ryan has been such a controversial pick is because he's carrying that budget with him. that budget is revolutionary. that budget is something that would really change our priority list on where we put our money in this country and it became radical and it gave the obama team an opportunity to really focus in, okay, this is what romney wants. this is what he believes in. so those three stories, i think, were unanticipated hurdles.

>> it is striking that we're not having a real debate about entitlements which is such a critical issue. not really having it. we're not having it in a presidential campaign .

>> with all due respect, i have a feeling you'll disagree with this ad but that is, i think, why the ryan pick was this brave and interesting and edgy. and i mean, not that it has to be a bible but it had to be something that symbolized, you know what, doing brave things.

>> to go there you have to go there.

>> you have to go there.

>> you've got to jump in.

>> that's why the obama people like that pick because it forced the imagery of romney right.

>> we have elijah cummings that we're going to bring in in a minute. ed brought up murdoch and akin. does harry reid have a four-leaf clover? you have mur dabbing and akin who may lose indiana and missouri, two states they should have won going away, and two years ago christine o'donnell who really lost a seat. and then sharon engel in nevada. harry reid should be retired watching boxing matches.

>> it's political malpractice on the part of the republicans if you want to be in leadership.

>> even if the margin is narrow and obama wins subject tomorrow morning has got to be in many ways, we'll have many issues to cover, but politically the fate of the republican party .

>> there's no doubt about it.

>> demographically, ideologically and all the rest. it's in real trouble even if the margin is narrow.

>> and the big question is especially for conservative, movement conservatives are going to be asking how did we lose this race? we will be asking the question that democrats and people that write for the new yorker were asking after you lost to george w. bush twice. let's go now to elijah cummings in baltimore, maryland . how's it going, buddy? how are you feeling?

>> i feel great.

>> are you going to guarantee that the president will carry maryland tonight? are you willing to step out on a limb?

>> by at least 25 points. by at least. and i agree with ed, by the way, that i have a strong feeling he's going to carry havevirginia. let me telthousands of people into virginia and pennsylvania over the last six months. as a matter of fact maryland has expo exported a lot of our folks down there and every weekend they're going down there talking to folks and they've been going sometimes during the week. and so the feedback we've gotten back is that they feel very good about virginia . they don't see -- at best -- at worst a tie. we really believe we're going to win virginia .

>> congressman, this is ed. what has been the best thing that has happened to the obama campaign throughout all of this when it comes to having a target to really define what mitt romney is all about?

>> i think that when he appointed ryan , to be very frank with you -- i mean, there were people that were very pleased about the ryan pick. he's a great guy but you all are right. that budget that ryan has is one that goes against so much of what my constituents need and what they want. and they go in the opposite direction of the president. but there's an issue, ed, that a lot of people have. this thing of voter suppression . i listened to you yesterday and you were laughing about it --

>> i wasn't.

>> i know you weren't, mika.

>> i wasn't.

>> take it very seriously. david gregory goaded me and it makes me sad. now you're laughing.

>> it's an emotional -- i predicted a long time ago that african- american people would come out in record numbers and that's already what is happening in my district. they are coming out in record numbers because they do not like the idea there seems to be a concerted effort to stop them from voting. i literally have talked to particularly elderly people , literally crying. they're okay here in maryland . but when they look at the lines --

>> in florida .

>> it's like we're going backwards. i feel very bad about that.

>> three hours is a poll test.

>> and it's a republican african-americans and they will say the same thing. this backfired against the party. why do they bring up these electoral rules that looked like they were trying to stop african-americans from voting? it got the base out.

>> elijah, let me ask you, after the 2000 election the chaos of 2000 we heard that washington was going to try to pass are more uniform laws. so each state -- so we didn't have such a patchwork that led to the chaos of the 2000 recount. why haven't we been able to move forward to guarantee that what happened in south florida , what you say you're seeing in maryland wouldn't happen again?

>> joe , i think there was not a desire on the part of the congress, and what i mean is everybody wanted to basically have their own state rules, you know, people want to control -- you know, joe . you've been in congress. they want --

>> i wasn't paying attention.

>> but i'm serious. but going back to what i said, there's another thing that's happening with african- american people that will cause them to turn out in even greater numbers. a lot of people feel very upset about the way this president has been treated. they feel he's been treated unfairly in so many ways and they know that everything he has tried to do, they are very much aware of this, the republicans have tried to stop him. and then they hear people say, oh, he didn't get along with everybody. well, when you have somebody trying to get you out of office before you even get into office and going against every single thing you try to do, i mean, it's kind of hard to be friends. but i'm hoping that after this election is over that they will say, you know what, we've got to do what is right by the american people with this president and so that weigh all merge together. governor christie and the president. that was an emotional picture to me to see those gays who really care about this country emerge to do some great things for people who are in trouble. that's the image we need.

>> they do, congressman but, mika, we know chris christie very well. we know he only did that so he could hug bruce springsteen .

>> and ride in air force one. so congressman elijah cummings , thank you.

>> thank you.

>> you mentioned joe was in congress. a little fact on the day you were elected. your nephew was born and it's his birthday.

>> 18 years ago today.

>> isn't that nice? thank you very much, elijah.

>> thank you.

>> david and ed schultz , thank you as well for coming back. i mean, really, why would you do that? you're a glutton. now i understand something about you. ed, so great to see you. you have a long night ahead of you. still ahead this morning it could be too close to call in ohio and pennsylvania . we'll talk to leaders from both battleground states , former democratic governor of ohio ted strickland and republican senator from pennsylvania senator pat toomey . but first -- oh, no. louis will do his best to try to find ohio and pennsylvania on the map. that's never going to happen. he'll be out there for hours. he'll be out there for hours.

>> do not go over texas.

>> will you is on ice straight ahead on " morning joe ."