Morning Joe | November 06, 2012
>>> to " morning joe ." andrea mitchell is still with us. and joining the table, the host of msnbc's "politics nation" and president of the national action network reverend al sharpton . also former treasury official and " morning joe " economic analyst steve rattner joins us. he has charts, he's going to tell us what's going to happen today.
>> what's going to happen?
>> what's going to happen?
>> the president's going to win.
>> intrade has been around for about ten years, two presidential elections, both of them right. in 2004 , it got 50 out of 50 states , in 2008 , got 48 out of 50 states .
>> well, then let's go home.
>> if you want to know what it's predicting. it's been predicting an obama victory up until the first debate. it had obama on a roll, not surprising will, he came down a bit from there, but at about a 70% probability.
>> this is based on bets, right?
>> real people betting real money and expressing their views. this isn't nate silver , this is a different thing.
>> republicans like this, this is the market.
>> this is the market, exactly. a republican guy. let's look at the battleground states where intrade has a strong point of view that the president's going to win ohio , he's going to win new hampshire, he's going to win iowa. and that obviously is enough to put him over the top . and the only two that are at all close are virginia and colorado . and even since we did these charts, the president's moved a little further ahead in virginia and colorado , but those you probably rate closer to the toss-up end. but obviously as chuck well knows, if he does what intrade says, he'll get 270.
>> i like the colorado money. there's some money to be made.
>> there is.
>> we don't bet on races.
>> we don't. but i might put contracts on the underdog here.
>> if you look at where that puts the president --
>> he's joking, everybody.
>> no i mean -- i'm a market guy --
>> if i did. if i had an --
>> head of nbc news standard, chuck is joking.
>> even without colorado and virginia as chuck well knows, that puts the president to 281, if you add colorado and virginia , gets him a little over 300. and a quick look at the senate races because intrade has a strong point of view, as well.
>> i like this.
>> start off with mika with elizabeth warren . elizabeth warren in massachusetts.
>> does she win?
>> these are high-probability predictions. claire mccaskill , a democrat, chris murphy beats linda mcmahon in connecticut, tim kaine in virginia , and the closest races in montana, tester is the slight underdog.
>> i bet it's thursday.
>> hey, let's bring in right now from columbus, ohio , republican senator of ohio and a man who is an adviser of the romney campaign and wishes he could vote too on intrade because he would think it would make a lot of money is senator rob portman . looks like a lot of money being bet on democrats, rob, this is our chance. this is our chance to make us some cash.
>> clearly they've been watching msnbc too much, joe , that's all i can say.
>> oh. oh. the little jab there. okay.
>> very good.
>> luckily it's the voters who get to decide. luckily the voters get to decide. and i'll tell you, the passion's on our side this year. i heard you playing the boss there, the music, they had the boss yesterday, we had the passion. i was at my 20th rally in ohio in the last month or so and the energy and enthusiasm is on our side. as you know, at the end of the day , if you've got a grass roots machine in place, which we do and of you got the energy and enthusiasm, it gives you an advantage. i think we'll pick up ohio and they say so goes the country.
>> okay. so let's get into the politics of this. and past seven, eight, nine days, we had a better-than-expected jobs number. i think the last time the republican thought the jobs number was too low and it was skewed. so i'm not sure what you all thought of this one.
>> we thought it was high because it was higher than the month before, it's higher than when president obama -- well, mika , here's a president who says he inherited a terrible economy, it was crashing, and look, it was a tough situation, but the unemployment number on friday is higher than it was the day he was sworn into office. i don't think that's good news for the democrats. i think it shows that, you know, we haven't turned the corner, and gosh, i can't believe people think it's good to have 7.9%. and when you have folks who left the jobs market, it's over 10%. this economy is clearly weak and not improving the way the president hoped it would.
>> to add to that point, reverend al, i'll go to you on this. the jobs number, i guess you could look at it that way and you could say it's better than expected and there's a lot of data pointed in a positive direction, housing consumer confidence . hold on one second, senator.
>> but the economy is different. what may help romney is that even though the numbers look good, the jobs are different.
>> the jobs are different --
>> there are jobs that are not lasting --
>> lower wages.
>> there's lower wages. we talked about income last week. could that ultimately help mitt romney ?
>> it could. but the problem that i think that mr. romney and all due respect senator portman have, we went from the surplus economy with clinton, we went to job losses with bush, now we're going through 23 straight months of job adding jobs, including 171,000 jobs last month. so people are saying that we're headed in the right direction. do we wish we were headed there more quickly? yes. romney has in many ways represented where we were trying to get away from.
>> but, joe , people are -- it's the data that is saying we're headed in the right direction. the question is, are people feeling that way?
>> well, and rob, that's the -- senator, that's the real challenge, i guess, for mitt romney in your home state of ohio , things have turned around. you look at the right track/wrong track in ohio . it's certainly more positive than it was a year ago. isn't that at the end of the day mitt romney 's biggest challenge?
>> well, it is better, joe , but still a wrong track ohio . in other words, people still think we're headed in the wrong direction by a majority. we reflect the country on wrong track numbers and our employment number, you're right, closer to 7%. but again, when you add folks who are looking for work, it's close to 10%. and we lost 800 jobs in ohio last month. in terms of this recovery, which economists agree this is the worst recovery since the great depression if jobs. we're about 4 million jobs down from where we were from the recession as compared to a recession that was also deep. the unemployment numbers are even higher in '81 with ronald reagan . we are over 7 million jobs ahead by this point. that's what people are looking at, gosh, are we going to turn this thing around? we haven't been able to the last four years. mika said earlier it was a better jobs number than expected last month. actually, it was worse than expected if you are the obama administration because they expected it to be in the low 5s. it's 50% higher than that. if you're an independent voter you're thinking, hey, let's give mitt romney a chance because he does have a plan and it's new proposals to turn things around.
>> all right. senator rob portman --
>> senator, thauch.
>> thanks a lot.
>> thank you, guys. thanks, reverend.
>> we'll be looking at your state very close tonight. so, chuck, things have turned around economically in ohio . john kasich says it.
>> kasich's jobs rating, job approval rating and the president's job approval rating were about a point apart. what does that tell you?
>> about the same. as goes ohio so goes the country.
>> i think they will all have to re-examine that last advertisement on jeeps. that really backfired on mitt romney . if he does end up losing ohio it's that whole toledo area.
>> the jeep brand hurt them. i read the engaged and the enrage enraged and they are coming out to vote. there's a lot of passion out there.
>> where do i go online for that?