Will enthusiasm translate to votes for the president?

>> going to be here for five more hours, anyway, we've got special coverage all morning long. we will be watching this election as it unfolds and then we'll end up the night with some vodka at the 92nd street "y." if any of you want to join us, it'll be fun.

>> while mika's drinking vodka --

>> yes.

>> the results are going to be coming in. you've covered more than a few of these. i always remember your instruction to us the morning of the new hampshire primary in 2008 . why don't you just cool it and let the voters vote.

>> right. i still feel that way. i don't know what happens today and i don't think anyone out there does for all the confidence that is exhibited by both sides. i've likened what's going on to a football metaphor. you've got the romney campaign running what effectively is the run and gun offense. and then you've got the ohio state offense going on the other side, which is grind it out and play the ground game. get out the vote. they're very confident they can do that. but in the years i've been doing this, i've known that you don't always translate the passions of crowds in the last two days into actual votes and i know there's a difference between getting a voter on the line and saying are you ready? and they say, yes, i am, walk out the door and change their mind before they get to the ballot box . there's a lot of stuff in play here. and what i love about the process, what i love about this country and the way we govern ourselves is that -- takes this immigrant nation and all the information we have and they're going to make up their mind after a very difficult year for them. it's been way too long, they've been buffeted by, first of all, the republican primaries , i don't think anybody was ever happy with that stuff and the continuing struggle that we've had with the economy, benghazi going on, and then in the last week the storm. they'll get up this morning, they'll go to the voting booth and they'll decide who they want to run this country for the next four years and they won't do it at the point of a gun. there won't be tanks in the street. it's an amazing process that we're about to go through.

>> it really is. really is.

>> and chris , you never really know until the voters speak. i talked about new hampshire 2008 when everyone was predicting hillary's career was over. we could talk about 2000 , we could talk about john kerry 2004 . and tonight, there's sure to be some surprises.

>> and the interesting thing, it's a small point, but there's always candidates -- who wins years they didn't have a prayer. like joe biden in '72, which was he built his whole career on, his campaign back in '72. in utah as a democrat. these guys build careers on bucking the trend. who knows, things are all possible tonight.

>> what about pennsylvania ? is pennsylvania -- that's your home state.

>> i talked to my friends like tom leonard , i keep calling people and they all say 4-6. they're all very confident. and bobby kasey hasn't run a good campaign. and this guy smith has spent a ton of money.

>> yeah.

>> but i think the kasey name is magic in pennsylvania .

>> and most importantly, chris matthews ' brother if you were watching "hardball."

>> he calls it. he calls it.

>> last night --

>> and who is it going to be?

>> charlie said it's obama . he tilts a little.

>> tilts a little?

>> he usually gets it right.

>> before we get to the national polling.

>> just talking about how we don't know what's going to happen. chris has written two books about john kennedy who remarked to an aide who had a profile written about him calling the aide brilliant. and kennedy said another 10,000 votes in illinois and we'd all be stupid. so very close.

>> let's take a look at polling in recent weeks, which has barely budged. president obama and governor mitt romney deadlocked in a statistical tie with the 2000 election in mind, look back, both sides have already assembled legal teams to handle any voting irregularities or possible recounts. can you imagine that? there is, i guess, a possibility this could be a long night. this contest will likely come down to a handful of swing states which have shown the president with a consistent but razor thin advantage among likely voters. polling precincts and a number of states including virginia and new hampshire have just opened their doors for voting right now as is tradition to tiny new hampshire villages were first to cast ballots. at midnight, it was a split decision , five votes for each candidate. there were 23 votes for president obama , nine for romney in hart's location. tonight's polls begin closing at 6:00 eastern in kentucky and indiana . and our first big hint of how the night might unfold will come after 7:00 when polls close in another half dozen states, including the battleground state of virginia with 13 electoral votes up for grabs. it's a state that president obama turned blue in 2008 with a seven-point margin.

>> and if mitt romney does not carry virginia --

>> it's going to be a long night.

>> his path to 270 seems next to impossible.

>> it'll be a longer, harder night. it was interesting to hear chris say it was a four to six-point ratio. this morning, another poll out showing michigan to be a tighter race than i thought it would be with romney with a point lead. and i just think it reinforces what brokaw said. you never know what happens when people go to the polling place . and when i lost in the senate when i had so many people who came up to me that said i voted for you and i wish you won and i had some people not so enthusiastic about my opponent, he said i wondered if you would be too close to the democrats. it led me to believe i would rather lose with a majority of unenthusiastic people. so we'll see as this night progresses. don't get me wrong, i love the enthusiasm about supporters, i'd love the lack of enthusiasm --

>> i think that's a test, by the way, haley barbour said what the republican party has to do is to persuade the people who hired barack obama that they now have to fire him. and that's a tough way of putting it.

>> yeah.

>> that's what it comes down to. and that's always a big reach when you've got an incumbent running for reelection. you've got to say to the people who got him there, this has not worked out and did they close the deal?

>> he did, chris matthews , have a very good last seven days?

>> yeah, in the end, mika, it was all about actions. he got elected on rhetoric, inspiring speeches, and yet if obama makes it tonight, it will be decisions, he actually did things, he hired hillary clinton as his secretary of state, forming unity in the democratic party .

>> we're watching joe biden and his wife ready to vote.

>> and there's bo.

>> he hired hillary and that forced a coalition in the party. second the auto industry thing, he did his version of the dream act . these were specific things he did. i don't think he gave a great speech this year, the whole year.

>> i agree.

>> bill clinton --

>> i'm just talking about the past seven days, you have this hurricane, you have this symbolic crossing of the aisle with chris christie , which i still don't.

>> let me tell you, i think why it worked was christie was such a big mouth and such a strong presence and gave the keynote and a tough, surly guy, stay out of my face. for him to come out and say let's get this job done and it was so full hearted. and i think that romney had just started to say a couple of days before that, i can be the guy that works across the aisle.

>> and then you have the pictures. you have the jobs numbers better than expected.

>> the jobs numbers that were better than expected, the ohio event, jon meacham , where romney drew 20 to 30,000. you have the pennsylvania event that john heilemann said was electric, was incredible. and it seems, again, we -- it seems like a jump ball, but sometimes enthusiasm doesn't translate into votes. and i think back to a rally that john kerry had in 2004 . i think about 50, 60,000, 70,000 in madison, wisconsin.

>> tom was saying a second ago it's a mysterious transaction that happens. the first two pages of teddy white 's making of the president 1960s about how mysterious it is. and you go into the voting booth and it's like the economy. you know, these are an infinite number of decisions that can't be captured as hard as we try.

>> the country's republican until 6:00 at night then the workers come home and then it shifts.

>> if america goes democratic, it goes democratic after work.

>> you had that full-throated endorsement by mayor bloomberg , right? that was it? that probably clinched it there. i think so. apparently.

>> has a --

>> has a terrific sense of timing and obviously the city suffered and he did what he thought was best. but i tell you, i think the jobs number --

>> you are --

>> you can't even spin that one.

>> he had to really think hard for that terrible spin.

>> if the president --

>> what's been said over and over again, i think it's right, it would be without question his courage in extending the auto bailout and his continue early battering of romney . and if romney loses, he will look back and wonder why he didn't offer full defense of what he did earlier and why he didn't become that candidate he became october 3rd . he will look at that fire wall in ohio if he's successful tonight and be very thankful.

>> if he'd stayed on the line he was on in the first debate, i'm a business guy, i can create jobs, instead of getting off into benghazi and neo con nonsense, i think he'd be tough to beat tonight.

>> and without sandy. i think that sandy had a big impact . that throws a campaign at a time when he really did have momentum. and it is a lot about timing, as you know, joe.

>> we had some senate races, marquee senate races in massachusetts. obviously, scott brown , elizabeth warren . you go to virginia and you have tim kaine and george allen . of course, a couple other races that republican candidates brought to the forefront. missouri , indiana . races that mitt romney would just assume forget about. what are you looking for in the senate races and the house races?

>> well, one of the things i'm looking for is whether, in fact, akin makes it in missouri . does look like murdoch has fallen far behind. and i think that's, claire mccaskill holds her seat and that's an important marker for this evening. and a statement about where the tea party and the positions they've been taking especially when it comes to women and their place in american life . i think that obama is the beneficiary of that debate that has been going on around the country. big issue for the senate is do the democrats hold the senate because it's pretty clear that the republicans are going to hang on to the house. now, a lot of folks have been saying, we're not going to get anything done. you've got to remember that we got a lot done with bill clinton after the republicans took over in '94 because they got his attention and more stuff got done after that, welfare reform and a lot of other stuff and clinton in his own way was able to maneuver the democratic party and stay nimble himself about how to take advantage of that. i think there's a lot to be said for divided government, quite honestly. if you have an attitude on the part of the leadership. look, we're now in the crosshairs of history, we've got a congress that has 11% approval. do we want to end our public life .

>> fiscal cliff.

>> with this deep, dark scar on all of us.

>> and if republicans do end up losing missouri tonight and indiana tonight, add to that their losses in delaware two years ago and nevada two years ago, four races they should have won, and the very people questioning the integrity of these republican candidates like dick lugar , whether they were real republicans or not, you can talk two years ago about mike cassell.

>> right.

>> will be the very ones responsible for making harry reid majority leader for another two years and will cause, i think, some re-examination within the party.

>> hopefully so for the party's sake. jon meacham , harold ford jr ., thank you very much. tom brokaw and chris matthews , stay with us, if you can. still ahead, david axelrod , moderator of "meet the press," david gregory , newt gingrich , and congressman elijah cummings .