Rattner's charts on Jobs report, stocks and Intrade

>>> put friday's numbers into perspective. let's talk about the job situation overall.

>> talk about the jobs or the mets and the no hitter, man.

>> at least there's some good news amidst all the gloom. how about the mets ? not just the no hitter.

>> bill maher , new owner of the new york mets .

>> did he buy one of the shares?

>> yeah. they were selling 12 minority shares at $20 million a pop, and i think bill maher bought one.

>> fred wilpon . there's just not a better guy in baseball.

>> and he is playing good baseball with limited budget, shall we say.

>> and tied for first place now.

>> how exciting.

>> the job situation overall.

>> the job situation overall. all right. look. just to put it back in perspective, as everybody knows , we went into this terrible recession which happened to have really reached its nadir right about the time that president obama was elected. so you see the loss of 700,000 jobs a month going on. the unemployment rate is still rising. ultimately hits 10%. and in the beginning of 2010 , we begin to see some recovery. we get some months of jobs over 200,000. but we also get -- and this is relevant to what we're seeing now. we get three springs in a row of weak job creation . and we don't know whether this may have some technical factors and how they calculate the numbers. it may be just a seasonal slowdown. or this time, and obviously the markets were thoroughly destabilized, it could be something worse.

>> so does that also mean -- and i can't dig right in on the charts -- we've had three recoveries in the summer from slow springs?

>> well, two, and now this is the third. and we'll see what happens this summer. but that's right. it has come back twice before from this kind of a slowdown in the spring.

>> but you would guess less likely this time because there's not the stimulus money out there?

>> that's right. and there's this european problem. and there's the feel that this slowdown may be for real, but we don't know that yet. this next chart is something that people don't always pay attention to or understand. which is it's very hard to have a robust job recovery when three important sect ors, which are government construction, homes in other words, and finance -- sorry, this one over here -- are all not contributing. they are either down in the case of government, down in the case of construction, flat in the case of finance. so even though we have created 2.5 million jobs since the recession ended in june of 2009 , you've got three sectors pulling it down.

>> three of the big sectors.

>> that are 25% of all the jobs.

>> and drove a lot of the growth, jon meacham , over the past decade before the collapse in '08.

>> so it's just very hard to have a robust recovery when a quarter of your economy is not recovering.

>> when you talk about uncertainty, is that because of the presidential calendar the rest of the year will be driven by that uncertainty, of people who might be putting some money in to create some jobs?

>> i think all of the uncertainty, and the fact that we seem to be making economic policy six months at a time in washington is very destabilizing. if you're a businessman and you don't know if you're taxes will be higher or lower, and what deductions you will or won't get next year, it's hard to plan your business.

>> and who's going to invest right now? if you've been frozen because you weren't sure of the impact of health care or these other issues, i mean, i remember -- this was about the time every couple of years that i would just go to the house floor and i'd read like roman history and greek history because i knew we were going to just be sitting on the floor doing nothing. because you're frozen in place for the election. and businessmen and women have been frozen in place for several years. steve, i would guess now they don't know whether romney wins, whether the president wins, whether the republicans are taking control. there's so many questions out there right now. this would be the least likely of all times for people that have been sitting on the sidelines to throw money back into the economy.

>> i agree. and it's a real unfortunate consequence of our system and the fact that we're in this endless, endless campaign. so let's look at the stock market for a second because the stock market as you saw behind you also, joe , next to the beautiful sunset, which was the very unfortunate stock market performance on saturday, but that was just the last day of what we've had for quite a while. it really started back with the april jobs report and the french and greek elections . when hollande was elected in france, when the greeks could not produce a government that could implement policy, the stock market basically --

>> holland struggling around the same time.

>> and the stock market was up as much as close to 15% this year. and since that date, it was just down, and then of course with what happened on friday, it just rolled over.

>> can you help me out? with the banking sector. it's something i have never understood. so 2008 hits. the banks on wall street just get hammered. stocks go way down. and then we're hearing the next year that they are celebrating some of the biggest profits they've ever had, passing out some of the biggest bonuses ever, everybody got angry. get the pitch forks out. and then six months later, a lot of mid level guys, that i know that are working at all of these banks, are sweating it because they are about to get fired because i guess bank profit started going down. why has it been down, way up, and seemingly down again?

>> well, down the financial crisis . way up because we had in this enormous infusion of government help on every front and recapitalized the banks.

>> and the banks went low and the stocks went high?

>> and a lot of banks got washed out of the system. you had mergers and consolidation. and then this last year or so, it's just been a really tough struggle for the banks. slow mergers and acquisitions . slow ipos. just generally slow.

>> but i don't understand. if they go down, then they make huge profits in nine and 10, and then they go down and start firing everybody again. do they not realize on wall street that there are cycles?

>> well, remember nine and 10, it's not like they hired a lot of people. they made a good bit of money. but then they found that business took another leg down, if you will, and they had to eliminate a bunch of people. one last chart if you're interested in trade that those of us follow and many of us like that tends to be a good predictor of things, this is one of the most remarkable things i have seen in intrade . because intrade tends to move very, very slowly particularly a long way from election. and it was holding barack obama sort of rock stead nethis 58% to 60% range. and on friday it went down to 53% in the blink of an eye . and that's something you don't see intrade do very often. so intrade is scared about --

>> it wasn't just one jobs report. what was it, steve?

>> this was literally one jobs report. this was literally what happened on friday after the jobs data came out. it just went from 57% right down to 53%.

>> and why is that?

>> i think --

>> is it an accumulation of concerns that led up to that?

>> no. i think it's what you heard a little bit on the show earlier on willie's show. i think basically there's now a sense that this election is going to be all about jobs and all about these jobs numbers and the president's need to defend his election. and intrade is now saying, we're not so confident anymore. now it's a dog fight between the president and romney.

>> you talk all the time, joe , about trend lines. if you look at 1984 , the unemployment rate wasn't great but it was getting better every month. if president obama gets worse every month, it's harder to make the case, hang with me for four more years and we'll get there. you can't have a summer of ticking down.

>> yeah, he can't. the problem with the unemployment number which we all look at, i can tell you that the white house was just as concerned over the last two months as they were on friday.

>> yeah.

>> even though the number might have ticked down, people are giving up out there. they are getting out of the work force . they are not looking for jobs. and so, yeah, i think take it -- taken altogether, it's bad. of course, gas prices are down. and, you know, jon, you're a histori historian, one of my favorite quotes, there's a special providence that protects fools, drunkards, and the united states of america . every time, you have people wringing their hands going, we're never getting out of this, and boom, we explode.

>> it protects the united states of america . it does not protect incumbent presidents, 1980 and 1992 being the best examples.

>> 1992 , if we had the growth in the third quarter that we had in the third quarter, it would have been different.

>> the president's approval ratings on his handling of the economy, on a lot of fronts, are almost identical to george bush 's in 2004 .

>> yeah.

>> and that is the one outlying number where his approval rating was below 50% at this point but did win.

>> an interesting comparison.

>> george w. bush . their numbers have been tracking similar.

>> george bush was very similar at this point.

>> coming up, " hard ball 's" chris matthews will join us.

>> that will be fun.

>> also, gillian tett. " washington post " columnist ezra klein . and in a few moments, mark leibovich. up next, mike allen with the top stories in the politico playbook. but first, bill karins is back with a check on the forecast. we were doing so well. everything was so accurate. now bill's back.

>> we had a great sunset over the weekend. and that wonderful picture, joe . that was the case in many questionnaiareas. this morning, not pretty up in new england. maine, new hampshire, vermont, you did not have a pretty weekend. it's cold enough this morning that it is snowing on june 4 atop mt. washington in new hampshire at 5,000 feet elevation. that's an indication of how chilly it is. only in the 50s today from boston to hartford. cool from philly to new york. afternoon showers and storms. and this morning, nasty storms around tulsa, ft. smith, and memphis. those are now headed down to northern mississippi. and birmingham, you'll have a rainy morning with showers and storms. the bottom line this monday, we are stormy on both coasts, but we are dry and hot in the middle of the country. if you're on the west coast , that's a chilly storm for you too. so kind of an interesting weather setup to start our june. not feeling a lot like summer in new york city . you're watching " morning joe " brewed by starbucks. [ multiple sounds