Historic turnover expected for Congressional races

>>> whoever gets elected president will have to deal with a lot more partisan congress based on primary results. nobody knows this stuff better than you do. jennifer, big theme, what you're looking for in this campaign, from what we've seen so far?

>> obviously the majority of the senate is at stake. republicans want the four seats they need to get that majority, but they have been hampered. in 2010 , candidates were elected by tea party activists who have proven to be especially weak. we're seeing it in missouri and indiana. these are two states republicans should win.

>> when you take a look at the house members and those who have won in the primaries already, what kind of a house of representatives are we going to see?

>> we're not headed for much turnover in the house. we'll probably see a democratic gain of zero to five seats. republicans could pick up a handful. but we are headed for the most polarized house of representatives in memory. on the democratic side, blue dogs wer010 and will be cut in half again in 2012 .

>> the blue dog democrats , you'll only have a hand full?

>> right. and democrats are going to be majority women, and on the run side, the tea party class of 2010 , more than 80% of them will be re-elected in 2012 . and their influence will rise as a result of their being 62 incumbentless seats on the ballot in november, which is a record since 1992 and a lot of conservative republicans are winning these seats.

>> when we look at the senate, aside from what you mentioned in indiana and missouri, who are some of the other candidates possibly in trouble?

>> we are looking at nine very tight races. five seats held by democrats , four by republicans. so i think the one seat that neither party will take a bet on is montana.

>> jon tester , the incumbent democrat.

>> we think we may not know the answer until thursday. so we're also looking at tight races in places like nevada , wisconsin, virginia. we got a handful of really tight races only won by a point or two.

>> what about ohio?

>> you know, very interesting. the parties have been looking at very different polling between democrat sherrod brown and republican josh mandell. democrats are not worried about sherrod brown . but republicans say we show it much closer. i suspect though, brown pulls it out.

>> in the house, in florida particularly, you have some really controversial candidates. one is very outspoken tea party republican allen west and the other is allen grayson, running to return to the house.

>> any state that could elect either one is an accepting and forgiving electorate or they can't make up their minds. allen west has actually put up his opponent's mug shot from when he was 19 years old and that's unprecedented. most tea party representatives, no matter how controversial they are, will be re-elected.

>> what about harry reid in nevada ? we've seen that he has a machine in nevada and can deliver.

>> he has spent a decade putting together a real democratic machine there. it saved him in 2010 and allowed him to win re-election. and i think that it looks like the state leans towards president obama . but the senate race, the republican has a bit of an advantage there. the problem is that the democratic candidate is not a perfect candidate. she's under investigation by the house ethics committee and that's gotten in her way of getting better known and supported in areas of the state she does not represent, because these tend to be more swing areas of the state.

>> one of the questions that is going to come up quickly on leadership issues. nancy pelosi , the democratic leader, has virtually no chance they're going to pick up 25 seats. that means that the democrats are not going to regain control. what is the likely scenario, is she going to stay and be the democratic leader?

>> most people thought in 2010 after democrats lost 63 seats and lost control of the house she might step aside . she actually stayed on. i don't hear from democrats betting she's going to quietly step aside , even if democrats don't gain much traction and pick up half of the seats they need to take back the house and give her back the gavel.

>> we have to leave it there. thanks jennifer and david.