Senate majority remains up for grabs

>> a former democratic congresswoman from california, former undersecretary of state for arms control and international security , and david winston , republican strategist. welcome, david and ellen , it seems from all accounts, that it's very, very unlikely that the house is going to change hands, the senate is still in play. but there are a lot of interesting races out there. david , first of all, right now mitt romney around virginia with george alan at his side, a close race with tim kaine , two former governors running against each other and george alan running for his former senate seat. we're hearing it is tim kaine marginally ahead but close to 50/50 race.

>> this is a close race. this fizz republicans are going to pick up majority one of the key states where the opportunity lies having said that, when you've soon a lot of the survey, surveys seem to have it even or slight edge to governor kaine. one of the problems that we're all trying to work through here is, so what is this electorate going to look like? in virginia an interesting mix of different types of voters and in terms of independents, african-americans that mix is critical.

>> and, ellen , another very, very close, perhaps the closest senate race in the country, montana .

>> that's right.

>> and senator tester, the democrat, who might just barely hold on. a lot of outside money going into montana which didn't used to permit that.

>> yes. you know this is all about turnout, as usual. i think there's a lot more momentum in the last 72 years. frankly there was even the last 72 days for some of these races. i think it will be very important to see what the voter turnout is. early voting numbers are ticking up in the states and we'll have to see where they are in montana tonight.

>> what about nevada? what are you seeing out there, david ? where harry reid operation proved in the past it's formidable but that you've got the democratic candidate holding on. this is a seat that could go either way obviously, 48/45 in our latest polling.

>> yeah, i'd have to say, i mean, harry reid 's operation is impressive in terms of how he won last time. in recent polling we've begun to see the republicans start to create some distance here and hellors like at least at this point better each day. i suggest momentum probably with, and again another one of seats if republicans regain majority in the senate. a must-win seat.

>> what about senate sprys? bob casey in a closer than should have been race given the large democratic registration edge in the state of pennsylvania ?

>> senator casey 's been all over the state. and he was really encouraging the obama campaign to stay in the state though the numbers look like, and the money was moving out, four five weeks ago, senator casey raised more money. he's up on tv. i think that he's going to pull it out.

>> you think in your old stheet congressman pete stark , democrat challenged by another democrat.

>> yes, my former intern. it's basically a tight race. we had two things happen in california. the normal redistricting but this time it was nonpart dan. so we also had a state ballot initiative for the top two, no matter what party vote getters in the primary would go to the general. two democrats in california 15 , eric's knocked on 70,000 doors, outraised stark and "the new york times" thinks he's going to win. larry sabado think he's going to win. 28% undecided now.

>> in the few seconds left, david , any big surprise you want to suggest?

>> one of the things people should be looking at, does it look like 2008 , was very favorable to the democrats or is it more like 2004 , which is obviously favorable to republicans. one of the big things people are try trog work through and understand, which eleelectorate is it going to look more like?

>> david and ellen , great to have you. thanks so mump to boch to both of