Jansing and Co | October 09, 2012
>>> the latest numbers from gallup show president obama has been regaining some ground on mitt romney , who's continuing to bask in the post debate afterglow. three days of polling after the debate, take a look, romney polling even with the president, erasing a five-point deficit. but then friday's strong jobs report could turn that around. i'm joined now by gallup poll editor in chief frank newport. frank, good to see you. good morning.
>> good morning!
>> okay, so, let me know what you think. how's the race shaping up? how much have we seen? how much have you been able to poll up to this point?
>> boy, we're studying the numbers. in fact, we're just looking at the numbers from last night, which we're adding to our rolling average which we will report out at 1:00 today at gallup.com. our view of the race is that romney definitely got a significant boost on thursday and friday of last week. and by the way, that's probably what was picked up for the most part in that pew poll that was discussed.
>> but when we monitor our data from saturday and sunday, and now just looking at the numbers from last night, obama is picking back up again. so, we think that that continuation of a huge move by romney is not in the data. so, overall, we would say it's looking like the race is, among registered voters , still tilting slightly in obama 's direction. among likely voters, which we'll begin reporting out today, we think that romney will probably have an even orvery, very slight lead.
>> so, based on what you're looking at, and i know you're not reporting the full numbers until 1:00, but based on the raw data you're looking at, has the president regained what he lost after the debate? is he just closing some of what he lost? how would you characterize it?
>> well, that's a good question. i would say that obama has gained back some of what he has lost but has not gained back to where he was prior to the debate when he was ahead by five points among registered voters . i would say since that it looks like he's gained some of it back but not all of it. so, we will see. every day we get new data in. but certainly, i don't think that romney has established and then been able to keep the very strong position that he got on thursday and friday.
>> you know, mitt romney 's strong debate performance is, of course, raising the stakes for thursday's vice presidential debate as well as the two remaining presidential debates . and you and i talked before the debate how sometimes they can move the numbers. how does mitt romney 's jump, as you've seen it so far, stack up with prior presidential debates ?
>> well, certainly, his debate performance itself is historic! you know, we've said to americans, who did better? it was a 52-point margin. and this is thursday and friday, and by then, i think people who have been watching your station and others have kind of learned that romney did better, but nevertheless, that's a huge gap, as you see. clinton also did well in '92 against bush the elder, but not as well. and barack obama himself did good back in '08, but again, not as well. but as we've been talking about, the real impact of the debates that people are interested in is, does it change the probability that one candidate will win or not? and romney picked up short term, but long term doesn't look as much, but we'll continue to monitor it.
>> there is also the question of the vice presidential debate. have vice presidential debates ever moved the numbers in any significant way, frank?
>> interesting question. can't go back to the 1800s . we don't see it. you know, we don't poll as much about the veep debates as presidentials, so it's hard to get precise, but it's hard to get any indication. even with the palin/biden debate in '08 that everybody watched so much, it's hard to get an indication that they make a huge difference. for example, lloyd benson did well, you'll remember, lloyd benson in '88 against dan quayle , but benson's ticket lost.
>> i knew jack kennedy . jack kennedy was a friend of mine, yes. okay, new pew poll out today shows mitt romney with a four-point lead over president obama among likely voters, but of course, everyone is watching polls from the key battleground states -- ohio, florida, michigan, to some extent now. is there any indication, or do you see any trends looking at the national numbers that tell you, do they influence voters in swing states ? do they give us an indication of how voting might go in swing states ?
>> oh, absolutely, on the latter, an indication. one of the reasons we at gallup focus a lot on the national numbers is because the same tide that will sweep voters nationally usually will move voters in the swing states . it's very rare that the national numbers don't reflect what's in the swing states or the electoral college . 200020 being the most recent exception. so yes, if we're seeing romney doing better nationally, there's no doubt we will see him, as we have in some polls, doing better in the swing states as well. so, the two move in lockstep based on our analysis.
>> frank newport, always fascinating to have you on. we will be looking at your website at 1:00 sharp. if you want to give us an early taste of it, feel free to e-mail me.
>> will do.
>> thank you, frank. good to see you again.