Jansing and Co | August 31, 2012
>>> priebus predicted that mitt romney would get a real bounce from the convention. right now the weekly trend from gallup shows romney remains neck and neck with the president, but we're still waiting to see if his speech last night made a difference. here to take a closer look at that is the gallup editor in chief frank newport. great to see you. how long before we figure out if there's a real bounce from this convention.
>> clearly through the weekend. with the back-to-back conventions we'll have a counterbalance, so we have a little opportunity to see if romney gained before he start to see if there's a counter balance coming back from the democrats. we want to look over the weekend and through monday morning.
>> let's look at where we are right now so we have sort of a baseline. barack obama 47%, mitt romney 46%. this is with what, registered voters ?
>> that's right.
>> and it's been remarkable consistent.
>> we have large samples involved here at gallup since april, so we don't see quite the fluctuation that we might see other way. but that's a good thing. that's why we're doing it. very close in and around this 47/46 split since april. it went up the first nights of the convention.
>> historically do candidates get a bounce and how much?
>> five points. how is that? republicans get five points if you add up all the bounces since barry goldwater .
>> but didn't president clinton have a huge bounce, 16 points?
>> in 1992 , that's why democrats historically get a bigger bounce. that was an interesting year. perot was in, then he dropped out right during the democratic convention . you can see this big bounce had to do with unusual third party circumstances. notice in '04 neither kerry nor bush got a bounce of four points.
>> the other thing is the bounce doesn't necessarily mean you're going to win.
>> that's right. carter and reagan , carter was ahead going into the conventions. carter got a bigger bounce, then it was close. but at the very end reagan pulled ahead and won. getting the balance helped set the stage but doesn't necessarily mean that person's going to win.
>> let's look forward and see what else could be critical. the key dates are september 7th through 13th.
>> very key date because the democratic convention is over next thursday which is the 6th of september. that next week after that will really let us see has the race been fundamentally reset in can romney come out of it ahead, did obama come out of it ahead?
>> we can't emphasize enough that really hasn't happened yet. we haven't seen someone who is well ahead and who has sustained it.
>> that's absolutely right. that's the story of this election so far is how close it's been and that's why it's so important to see if these conventions if voters tune in, will it make a difference when we check bases in september.
>> then in october will people really be paying attention. three presidential debates , one vice presidential debate. can they be game changers?
>> they can and they can't, how is ta that for an equivocal answer.
>> feel like a meteorologist, it might rain or might not.
>> the probability is 0.5. they can. if a lot of people watch. three debates and one vice presidential debate which had be interesting with paul ryan and joe biden . 1980's a great example ren reagan established himself as a viable alternative to jimmy carter , but other years they don't make much difference. after these convenges, that's the next big game changing time period.
>> historically what do we know about late deciders, when do they decide?
>> that's another equivocal answer. i keep talking about 1980 because it looked like reagan picked up the late surnl. right there very near the end. things can change right near the end. the races stay solid right up till election day .
>> what a job you have. thank you so much for coming in. let's check in again as the race goes on. thank you so much.
>> my pleasure.