Checking in on Senate races, control up for grabs

>>> that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. now back to "hardball."

>>> welcome back to "hardball." the fight for the u.s. senate can be as significant as the fight for president. right now looks advantage democrats. the latest analysis is it appears more likely than not democrats will holded majority, perhaps by only the slimmest of margins. there you have it. and the catch up is the massachusetts senate race between republican scott brown and democratic challenger elizabeth warren , and right now the clear politics poll average has warren up by 4.5. politi politico is up there in boston covering the race. dave, thanks for joining us from politico.

>> absolutely.

>> let me ask you about that race. it seems like something happened a couple weeks ago. was it the mayor's endorsement and putting all the troops? but that's only 8% of the lector root. what got her on top of the race?

>> i think it's women voters that were in brown's camp, still sort of flirting with him this summer in polls moving towards warren, and i talked to some pollsters and voters on the ground today and that's all you hear about on the airwaves, in the messaging. it's all designed to court women voters. some of them declaring themselves independents, although democrats have a big registration advantage up here 3 to , but i think if you look inside the polls, that's what's given warren the lead. brown still beats her among independents overall, but he's losing female voters. she has widened the gender gap .

>> you're going to have a big turnout. not like jaub of 2010 when he won that first time. here are the closing ads from warren and brown . first up, warren's. let's listen.

>> for all the families still struggling, all the people who deserve a decent job, and the women who deserve fee quaul pay, for our kids crushed by student debt and our parents worried about medicare, know this. my fight is for you.

>> well, here is the part of scott brown 's ad called people over a party that includes a shot of brown with president obama . let's watch.

>> let me tell you, things would be a lot better if in country if more people in washington were willing to think of themselves and work with each other for the good of america.

>> i wouldn't have thought he would be a flash in the pan 34ri7b8ly but he loses i don't know what's up for him in the future. let's go down the east coast . connecticut , i thought murphy has a real challenge on his hand for mcmahon but he seems to be up now.

>> right, right. it looks like he's solidified a small lead there. look, lind da mcmahon lost in the best republican year ever in connecticut . while she had tons of resources republicans love and she's able to spend a ton of money, put it on the air, it just seems like connecticut is not being sold, so it looked like murphy is going back and that's going to be a safe democratic hold.

>> we live in washington here. the virginia senate race is neck and neck. the clear politics average in this race has kaine up by a point. the most recent quinnipiac poll had him leading by four. which collectidirection is that headed?

>> i think it's headed toward kaine but a lot of it is dependent on the presidential win. it's predicted to end up in the democratic column. you're talking about margins of error and especially in northern virginia . that's going to be obviously a more diverse part of the state. that's where kaine needs people to come out, and i think he's been the better candidate.

>> did you see how close allen was trying to grab himself close to romney? trying to mate with him, trying to hold so close to him. it wasn't clear romney wanted to be all close to him. it was interesting to watch that nonmating game going on the other night, and that backs up -- let's go to ohio. we just had sherrod brown . we got his numbers, by the way, a lead over josh mandel , the very young opponent of five points. i think that should be so much higher. what's going on out there?

>> again, i think you have some presidential head winds. you have so so much money. sherrod brown has told you i think numerous times he's had more outside money spent against him than any other democratic senator so that has taken its toll, but josh mandel has had some missteps. there's some perception that he's a little too young, not really ready for prime time , and that's what's given brown an edge there. i think brown ends up winning that race.

>> i thought he was perfect for that state, sherrod brown . thanks david catanese from politico. in missouri incumbent democratic senator claire mccaskill leads todd akin by five points. the campaign just dropped a devastating ad. let's watch the latest mccaskill ad. here it is.

>> is todd akin fit to serve in the senate? mitt romney doesn't think so.

>> what he said was indefensible, was wrong. it was offensive and he should step out of the race.

>> and he's not alone.

>> todd akin is not at that convention, told by his own party to stay home.

>> even republican senators from missouri called todd akin totally unacceptable.

>> frankly, he would not be welcomed by republicans in the united states senate .

>> it was offensive and he should step out of the race.

>> i'm claire miss kak skill and i approve this message.

>> was that you playing the piano in that one, senator?

>> no.

>> that was a pretty devastating ad. you have all the republicans who had basically ran scared from the guy. are they all still scared of him or have they regrouped since that ad -- since those pictures were take snn.

>> some of them have kind of lukewarm endorsed him, but here the biggest news in missouri this week is that the national republicans have snuck in the back door after trying to reassure women all over america that they understood why everyone was offended at todd akin he is beliefs. they have now piled in, you know, yesterday i think they dropped a million and a half dollars on tv for todd akin in the closing days of this campaign. so we're having to work hard but that's the only speed i know, and it's -- you know, there's some head winds in missouri this time but we have really -- have a strong ground game. we need everybody to come out and vote. it's very important that people stay engaged and we hope that people go on our website and help us with some virtual phone banking or maybe 5 bucks over the weekend so we can get all of our -- we had to add to our media this week just because of all the money that snuck in in the last 48 hours .

>> well, this question might help. i will put it to you pretty strongly. anybody that would accuse someone of rape which carried a life sentence would believe that they were raped and they would have the personal experience of having been raped. who is he talking about when he suggests this category of women who accuse someone of rape, which is -- used to be a capital crime but it's close to it. who are these women that he's talking about? where does he get that thing about legitimate as opposed to these other cases? who are these people -- where does he get this memory bank from of women who have charged men with rape? where does this happen?

>> chris, i spent many years as a courtroom prosecutor and prosecuted hundreds of rape cases around worked with many of the rape victims on a personal basis, and i don't think people realize what women go through when they seek justice in this area. i think what congressman akin was trying to do was in his mind justify his beliefs, and that is that somehow a rape victim should not be allowed to access emergency contraception , and in order to justify that belief, i think he's trying to, you know, hold on to some mythical power that a woman has to not get pregnant if she has been raped, and clearly that's wrong, and that's why so many republicans have distanced themselves from todd akin . it's not just what he said, chris, it's what he believes on a number of subjects. this is somebody who wants to abolish the minimum wage, who believes that employers, that the boss, has the freedom to discriminate against people based on their gender. this is somebody who is on the fringe. he is going to be part of that -- you know, he's very close with michelle -- i make the joke he makes michele bachmann look like a hippie.

>> that's a hell of a push. thank you for coming on, senator mccaskill. good luck in your race. we've had you on our show so many years. hope to have you on next year.