Job growth still not enough to save the economy
>> you heard it here first. dylan, it's all yours.
>> thank you. i think the show starts now.
>>> we have a 30 million jobs tour we're dedicating our professional time to. i'm dylan ratigan . it's a sligdelight to see you. third week of the tour. we're in the belly of the beast , washington, d.c. one of the more unhealthier places in our country, but probably the most important and in need of our attention and resolution if we're going to have 30 million jobs in this country. they are open to it. just a matter of pointing a way forward . this, of course, the first friday of the month. as we all know, that's the day of the month we get the benefit of the monthly jobs numbers. today that picture got a bit better. stability may be developing around us, which is a welcome development. 243,000 net jobs added last month. that brings then employment rate rate, the trend that that gang is indicating is a modest improvement at 8.3%. that's why we interpret is as stability. it's the lowest reading we have seen in three years. the reason i say not prosperity is because that number is still high and the reason that number is improving is many have fallen out of the labor force , which makes the number get better while many more are underemployed, which is a huge issue in our country. we all the real unemployment number is closer to 20% when you count college grads working in low-skill jobs. it goes to the narrative we talk about all the time. but enough from me. you hear from me enough. i want to bring back in the dynamic duo of jobs friday. the watson and crick of jobs analysis. jared bernstein and peter marici. we know you're a bo on the benefits of job creation . we're picturing you doing the s salsa touchdown dance with the news of the positive job numbers.
>> i wasn't quite that excited, but i did start saying, look. the thing that i'm looking for, i don't get all that revved up about one month's numbers. i'm looking what you were talking about. the trend. in this case if you're looking at unemployment or job growth , the trend is your friend. average that out over the past three months. we have been adding 200,000 jobs per month on average. go back to last summer. we were adding about half of that. you're right in what you said in your introduction. while 243,000 is a lot better than where we have been, coming out of such a deep recession, that's a number of only moderate magnitude. we're going to need bigger numbers than that. but every industry added jobs. so a strong report.
>> peter, give us the dark underbelly. not in an effort to rain on anybody's parade, but how to analyze the old gauge and how we could improve the way we measure the jobs numbers and how it is that if we don't have a culture of investment, tax code , trade policy , you're never going to have the level of output that virginia ja red would want.
>> the jobs numbers were good, but we had an enormous increase in the number of people who have quit the labor force and are not looking at all. the adult participation rate went down. over the last year, the percentage of adults that have had a job has stayed constant. instead the biggest jobs program has been getting people to think they don't need a job. we need to create maybe 380,000 private-sector jobs each month month to get to moderate employment. 6% over three years. to do that, we're going to have to double or triple the number we're getting in manufacturing. we had a great manufacturing month compared to before. we were below the snake's belly and now we're on the snake's back. but we have to get up there. what that means is we need less emphasis on wall street and whoever is president next january, somebody has got to develop the solution to deal with china. jared , you agree with the framing of this conversation. you're fully aware and obviously, an advocate of having a robust investment culture in america . we all know the investment culture in this country by litany of levers needs significant improvement. the question that's been occurring to me, jared , is how do we explore and benefit from the short-term stability we have achieved through the money printing and exploitation of our status as a reserved currency to get away with a stunt like this. how do we exploit the stability not to interpret it as we're out of the woods, but as a stable platform to engage in an intelligent debate as adults about how we're going to cultivate the investment culture for the next hundred years knowing we don't have it now.
>> the answer to that is for us all to recognize that with the progress we made, we have a fragile recovery. the reason is because investment in our workforce remains relatively low. we still have currency issues. we certainly would like to see the manufacturing going in the right direction. the but the president has every right to make an argument that we have the momentum. let's not screw it up. in the short run, that means some things like the payroll tax holiday and unemployment sdmurns. but in the longer run, he's a spouzing in new forms of growth precisely in the expansion sector. it's not going to be at the magnitude you're talking about, but i think within that framework, we have to argue with the congress that we have some momentum. let's build off of it.
>> if you were to be in the president's office, peter, whoever the president is whether it's the current president or whoever takes the job, what would your advice be to them in the framing that jared just presented us with improved stability and a little momentum on a couple things. how can we add more investment and more efficiency, more rapidly into america? what levers can we push to do that? we know your views on trade. we know my views on banking. i feel like it leaves us with an opportunity in this country over this year. especially with tom coburn 's book. to have a real debate on tax code in this country.
>> beyond trade, i would like to see the president deliver on his promise of the state of the union to rev up domestic oil production. to open up the gulf, importing the stuff only shifts the problems to developing countries . i would like to see genuine tax reform . that's a winning issue for the president, whoever might become president. even if we have president obama , we can go beyond dodd-frank. it's time to take a look at the idea that large banks can have 10% of the large deposits and five or six banks have 50%. they are not lending that money back out where it needs to be loaned. maybe it's time to start breaking up the large depositories without necessarily bringing back. that opportunity has been missed for now. we should break up the large depositories.
>> the watson and crick of jobs debate and invest mement in america. i give you ladies and gentlemen , jared bernstein
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